In July, the markets were affected by general elections taking place in the UK and France, and the ongoing presidential campaign in the US. Read on to find out what else affected investment markets in July 2024.

Uncertainty and numerous other factors may affect the value of your investment portfolio. However, for most investors, long-term trends are a better indicator of their strategy’s performance than short-term movements. Returns cannot be guaranteed, but, historically, markets have risen in value over longer time frames.

UK

The UK public took to the polls on the 4 July. The results of the general election ended 14 years of Conservative rule when the Labour Party secured a majority. 

The following day saw the FTSE 100 – an index of the 100 largest companies listed on the London Stock Exchange – rise by 0.3% when trading opened.

Housebuilders saw some of the biggest gains as Labour made building 1.5 million new homes over the next five years a key manifesto pledge. According to the Guardian, Persimmon, Vistry Group, Taylor Wimpey and Barratt Developments all saw rises between 1.7% and 2.5%. 

Mid-cap index FTSE 250 also benefited from a post-election bounce when its value increased by 1.8% and reached a two-year high.

New prime minister Keir Starmer stepped into the top job and received welcome news when official statistics were released.

Data from the Office for National Statistics shows that after no growth in April, GDP increased by 0.4% in May. The figure suggests the UK economic recovery is gaining momentum after a technical recession at the end of 2023.

Inflation remained stable during July, as prices increased by 2%, which is the Bank of England’s (BoE) target. The data paved the way for the BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee to cut its base interest rate on 1 August from 5.25% to 5%.

According to S&P Global’s Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI), the momentum in the service sector in May started to slow in June. However, the slowed pace was linked to the general election as some individuals and businesses opted to see the outcome before they placed orders. So, the sector could see an uptick in July. 

Despite the positive signs, many businesses are still struggling. According to business recovery firm Begbies Traynor, the number of firms in “significant” financial distress jumped by 10% in the second quarter of 2024 compared to the first three months of the year. 

The numbers are even more stark when you compare them to the same period in 2023 – with a 36.9% rise. Of the 22 sectors monitored, 20 saw an increase in the number of firms in difficulty. 

Europe

Inflation across the eurozone fell slightly to 2.5% in the 12 months to June 2024, according to Eurostat. The figures show inflation varied significantly across the bloc. Finland recorded the lowest rate of inflation at 0.5%, while Belgium had the highest rate at 5.4%.

With the headline inflation figure still above the 2% target, the European Central Bank opted to hold interest rates.

PMI figures suggest the manufacturing sector is struggling in the eurozone. It was partly pulled down by Germany’s enormous manufacturing sector, which has been contracting for the last two years, according to the PMI. A PMI reading above 50 indicates growth, so Germany’s reading of 43.5 in June suggests the country has some way to go before it starts to grow again. 

The parliamentary election in France and its unexpected twists led to market volatility. On 1 July, the CAC 40 index, which includes 40 of the most significant stocks on the Euronext Paris stock exchange, was up 1.5% as it became less likely a far-right party would secure a majority. 

The final shock results saw the formation of a left-wing coalition. The uncertainty around whether the left could work with Emmanuel Macron’s centrist party led to the CAC 40 falling by 0.5% on 8 July when trading opened. Yet, it returned to positive territory later in the day. 

The EU is reportedly planning to impose an import duty on cheap goods amid concerns from retailers in a move that could affect foreign businesses, such as Temu and Shein. The current limit for import duty is €150 (£126.13), which allows some retailers to ship products from overseas while avoiding a levy. 

US 

The US presidential election doesn’t take place until 5 November, but candidates have already been campaigning for months.

Following an assassination attempt on Republican candidate Donald Trump, Wall Street rose on the 15 July. Expectations of a victory for Trump led to the S&P 500 index rising 0.42%. The share price of Trump’s media company far outstripped the market when it rose by 70% at the opening and briefly led to the business being valued at $10 billion (£7.76 billion). 

With Joe Biden stepping out of the presidential race, the results of the election are far from certain and it’s likely to continue affecting markets. 

Inflation in the US continued to fall in the 12 months to June. However, at 3%, it’s still above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. 

Official statistics also show that the US trade deficit widened slightly as exports fell by 0.7% month-on-month in May while imports fell by 0.3%. The deficit now stands at around $75.1 billion (£58.3 billion) and could be a drag on growth in the second quarter of 2024.

American cybersecurity company Crowdstrike saw its share price plunge by more than 13% when a software bug crashed an estimated 8.5 million computers around the world on 19 July. The error led to services grinding to a halt as it affected banks, airlines, railways, GP surgeries, and many other businesses globally. 

Meta, owner of Facebook and Instagram, also saw its share price fall after the EU ruled it breached a new digital law. Meta’s advertising model that charges users for ad-free versions of its social media platforms that don’t use personal data for advertising purposes was found to breach consumer protection rules. Meta could now face fines of up to 10% of its global revenue. 

Asia 

A growing interest in artificial intelligence led to Japan’s Nikkei 225 index reaching a record high on 9 July, when it increased by 0.6%. 

Over the last few months, statistics have suggested that China could face some challenges if it’s to maintain its pace of growth. However, data shows exports grew at their fastest rate in 15 months in June 2024 thanks to a boost in the sales of cars, household electronics, and semiconductors. 

Year-on-year, Chinese exports grew by 8.6% to $307.8 billion (£258.8 billion). Over the first half of 2024, exports totalled a staggering $1.7 trillion (£1.43 trillion) – a 3.6% increase when compared to a year earlier. Coupled with weaker imports, it led to a record $99 billion (£83.25 billion) trade surplus.

Please note:

This blog is for general information only and does not constitute advice. The information is aimed at retail clients only.

The value of your investments (and any income from them) can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. 

Investments should be considered over the longer term and should fit in with your overall attitude to risk and financial circumstances.

Approver Quilter Financial Services Limited & Quilter Mortgage Planning Limited. 08/08/2024