Economic data suggesting some developed countries, including the US, could fall into a recession continued to affect investment markets in September 2024. Read on to discover other factors that may have affected the performance of your investments. 

UK

Data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) shows inflation remained stable at 2.2% in the 12 months to August. The figure is slightly above the Bank of England’s (BoE) 2% target.

Despite speculation that inflation data would lead to the BoE cutting interest rates, the Bank opted to maintain its base rate at 5%. While good news for savers, it means borrowers, including mortgage holders, are still likely to face higher outgoings when compared to 2021.

Many economists expect the BoE will make an interest rate cut before the end of the year. Indeed, investment bank Goldman Sachs predicts the interest rate will fall to 3% over the next 12 months.

GDP data showed the UK economy returned to growth in July after a plateau in June. However, the figures were disappointing, with just 0.5% growth in the three months to July 2024. 

There could be more positive news in the coming months though. Investment bank Peel Hunt optimistically said the UK economy is heading for “above-average growth” as inflation stabilises and consumer demand picks up. 

A report from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) provided a less cheerful outlook for the UK. The latest risk and sustainability report warned the UK, and other countries in the world, face long-term pressures, such as an ageing population, climate change, and rising geopolitical tensions. 

In addition, the OBR said, based on current policy, public debt is projected to almost triple to more than 270% of GDP over the next 50 years. The comments highlight the challenging backdrop chancellor Rachel Reeves will need to consider as she prepares to deliver her first Budget on 30 October. 

There was positive data released from the manufacturing sector. S&P Global’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) recorded the strongest month in two years. Both output and new orders continued to recover. 

Yet, many businesses continue to face significant headwinds. Among those is UK shipbuilder Harland & Wolff, which owns the Belfast shipyard that once built the Titanic. The company entered administration in September. 

Research also suggests that trade difficulties following Brexit could worsen. Aston Business School analysed the effect of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement on UK-EU trade relations, and found that trade is down by almost a quarter. 

The FTSE 100 experienced ups and downs, including falling 0.6% to a three-week low on 4 September. Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown, said: “Fresh worries about the health of the global economy have gripped markets, with the FTSE 100 far from immune.” 

Europe

Eurozone inflation fell to 2.2% in the 12 months to August 2024. The news gave the European Central Bank the confidence to cut interest rates for the second time this year.

The Paris Olympics provided a short-term boost to the eurozone economy. A PMI output index increased for the first time since May in August 2024 to reach a three-month high of 51.0 – a reading above 50 indicates growth. 

However, as the temporary boost of the Olympics fades, additional PMI data isn’t as positive. Indeed, HCOB’s flash PMI suggests the eurozone economy shrank for the first time in seven months in September. 

The manufacturing sector in particular is struggling, with a PMI reading of 45.8 in August 2024. Dr Cyrus de la Rubia, chief economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said: “Things are going downhill, and fast. The manufacturing sector has been stuck in a rut.” 

As the largest economy in the EU, the conditions in Germany can affect the bloc, and statistics suggest there are risks ahead.

Indeed, the Kiel Institute for the World Economy predicts Germany’s GDP will shrink by 0.1% this year and has halved its growth forecast for 2025 to 0.5%. 

Statistics body Destatis reports industrial production in Germany fell by 2.4% in July – far more severe than the 0.3% fall economists had predicted. The automotive sector suffered the largest fall (8.1%) followed by electrical equipment (7%). 

German carmaker Volkswagen has spoken about the challenges it faces. The company warned that it has a “year, maybe two” to adapt to lower demand. The economic environment has led to Volkswagen considering making unprecedented closures in its home market for the first time in its history as it tries to cut costs. 

US

Inflation in the US fell to its lowest level since February 2021 in August 2024 to 2.5%. In response, the Federal Reserve cut its base interest rate from 5% to 4.75%. 

The inflation and interest rate announcements led to the S&P 500 – an index of the 500 largest public companies in the US – jumping 1.5% on 19 September. 

Similar to Europe, data indicates the manufacturing sector in the US is struggling. Indeed, the Institute of Supply Management reported it contracted for the fifth consecutive month in August. The news led to a dip in the markets around the world at the start of the month.

Figures from the Bureau of Economic Analysis also indicate a business threat as the trade deficit increased by $5.6 billion (£4.19 billion) in July to $103.1 billion (£77.13 billion).

American company OpenAI, the firm behind ChatGPT, announced it was in talks to raise $6.5 billion (£4.86 billion) from investors at a valuation of $150 billion (£112.21 billion) – making it one of the most valuable start-ups in the world.

Asia

Investment market volatility in Asia highlighted how factors around the world can affect markets. On 4 September, Japan’s Nikkei lost 4.2% and South Korea’s Kospi fell 3.4% after investors were spooked by fears that the US could experience a downturn when poor manufacturing data was posted. 

A survey of China’s manufacturers from Caixin suggests export orders were subdued in August and fell for the first time this year as it faced external challenges. 

However, China announced stimulus measures aimed at boosting the economy and stock market, as well as supporting the property sector on 24 September.

The news led to stock markets across Asia-Pacific rising – China’s CSI 300 index was up more than 4%. In fact, the announcement led to world stocks hitting a record high when the MSCI World Stocks index increased by 0.3%. 

Please note:

This blog is for general information only and does not constitute advice. The information is aimed at retail clients only.

The value of your investments (and any income from them) can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. 

Investments should be considered over the longer term and should fit in with your overall attitude to risk and financial circumstances.

Approver Quilter Financial Services Limited & Quilter Mortgage Planning Limited. 04/10/2024